does jail depopulation affect crime?

Does reducing incarceration rates lead to an increase in crime?

No. Nationwide, 34 states reduced both imprisonment and crime rates simultaneously between 2007 and 2017. The state with the largest drop in incarceration rates (New Jersey, with a 37 percent decrease) also saw a 30 percent decrease in crime rates during this period. It is clearly the case that reducing mass incarceration does not need to come at the cost of public safety.

Doesn’t money bond help ensure people return to court and don’t commit new offenses?

No. Multi-year data released by Colorado’s Division of Criminal Justice shows that money bond does not have a measured association with court appearance or criminal behavior while a person is released on bond. Instead, money bond serves to keep poor people incarcerated pretrial, while people with means can buy their freedom – regardless of any safety or flight considerations.

Is jail population reduction in Colorado driving an increase in crime?

No. Data shows no correlation between the extent a county reduced its jail population and the change in crime in that county, as is illustrated by the graph below. Douglas County and Larimer County are an illustrative example - the two counties had similar decreases in jail population (24% and 18% respectively) and overall crime increased by 11% in Douglas County and decreased by 13% in Larimer County. Similarly, El Paso County and Arapahoe County had similar decreases in jail population (36% and 40% respectively) and overall crime decreased by 2% in El Paso County and increased by 9% in Arapahoe County. Jail depopulation does not have any measured association with crime rates.